Comments on: Jeffrey F. Bell: Curmudgeon Without a Cause http://www.anthonares.net/2006/10/jeffrey-f-bell-curmudgeon-without-a-cause.html Chronicling and Commenting on Human Progress Thu, 28 Aug 2008 16:04:38 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2 By: Matt http://www.anthonares.net/2006/10/jeffrey-f-bell-curmudgeon-without-a-cause.html#comment-24945 Matt Thu, 26 Apr 2007 17:32:47 +0000 http://www.anthonares.net/2006/10/jeffrey-f-bell-curmudgeon-without-a-cause.html#comment-24945 Well thats the thing for me. I'll agree we need more spacey trips, but private profiteering, probably based in 0% tax havens, i dunno. I think I agree with Volker, but more to the point if the US government, or any government for that matter, got their heads out of stupid wars in Iraq or wherever they might be able to find a spare 50 billion just sitting there saying "conquer space" The realproblem isn't about state or private advantages, it's gotta be that privateers focus because they risk their capital whereas governments get caught up in all that other crap. Honestly I think governmental policy can be more effective when concentrated efficiently to harness the power of 300million investors through the tax dollar. Still if Volker is right then maybe government money is in the pipelines anyway (I'm sure all governments will jump onboard once the iron starts rolling off some asteroid in quadrant 4) Well thats the thing for me. I’ll agree we need more spacey trips, but private profiteering, probably based in 0% tax havens, i dunno. I think I agree with Volker, but more to the point if the US government, or any government for that matter, got their heads out of stupid wars in Iraq or wherever they might be able to find a spare 50 billion just sitting there saying “conquer space” The realproblem isn’t about state or private advantages, it’s gotta be that privateers focus because they risk their capital whereas governments get caught up in all that other crap. Honestly I think governmental policy can be more effective when concentrated efficiently to harness the power of 300million investors through the tax dollar. Still if Volker is right then maybe government money is in the pipelines anyway
(I’m sure all governments will jump onboard once the iron starts rolling off some asteroid in quadrant 4)

]]> By: Volker E. Goller http://www.anthonares.net/2006/10/jeffrey-f-bell-curmudgeon-without-a-cause.html#comment-6429 Volker E. Goller Fri, 29 Dec 2006 12:43:28 +0000 http://www.anthonares.net/2006/10/jeffrey-f-bell-curmudgeon-without-a-cause.html#comment-6429 I think J.F. Bells point is that it will not get easier if you use Ethernet rather than a "hand designed" com protocol. All this modern art modifications can't change the basic physical rules. At the end of the day, its risky and expensive to lift a single kilogramm (or lbs if you want) into orbit -- not to talk of any trajectory to more distant locations. True, new technology can improve efficiency and may make things possible that where not in 1960. And it can lower costs. Maybe. But to prove this, SpaceX has to lift some payload finally. The VirginGalactic (what a megalomaniac name for a company that is going to offer 5 minute hops to the upper atmosphere) SpaceShipXXX must prove its business case works. Actually, the business concept of VirginGalactic maybe the one that works best, because noone will complain or give disappointed comments about a 5min hop if one had paid big money for that little hop. The traveller would make a fool of himself in that case. Saying that, I start to belive it will work. The "emporers new clothes" business model has proven to work so many times, why not again? I do not worry about technology, I worry about the business cases. Most of those companies, like SpaceX, are addicted to DoD or other govermantal money. Thats no new business, its old business with new players. I am happy if people will prove I am false. And I guess Mr. Bell will be, too. I think J.F. Bells point is that it will not get easier if you use Ethernet rather than a “hand designed” com protocol. All this modern art modifications can’t change the basic physical rules. At the end of the day, its risky and expensive to lift a single kilogramm (or lbs if you want) into orbit — not to talk of any trajectory to more distant locations.

True, new technology can improve efficiency and may make things possible that where not in 1960. And it can lower costs. Maybe.

But to prove this, SpaceX has to lift some payload finally. The VirginGalactic (what a megalomaniac name for a company that is going to offer 5 minute hops to the upper atmosphere) SpaceShipXXX must prove its business case works.

Actually, the business concept of VirginGalactic maybe the one that works best, because noone will complain or give disappointed comments about a 5min hop if one had paid big money for that little hop. The traveller would make a fool of himself in that case. Saying that, I start to belive it will work. The “emporers new clothes” business model has proven to work so many times, why not again?

I do not worry about technology, I worry about the business cases. Most of those companies, like SpaceX, are addicted to DoD or other govermantal money. Thats no new business, its old business with new players. I am happy if people will prove I am false.

And I guess Mr. Bell will be, too.

]]> By: Bruce http://www.anthonares.net/2006/10/jeffrey-f-bell-curmudgeon-without-a-cause.html#comment-4629 Bruce Fri, 27 Oct 2006 21:54:02 +0000 http://www.anthonares.net/2006/10/jeffrey-f-bell-curmudgeon-without-a-cause.html#comment-4629 Well said, Anthony! Practical space technology has skipped a whole generation of engineers, so we do indeed need to train a bunch of people to start with the basics of space flight engineering, to get their hands dirty climbing the experience curve, hopefully in a way that will provide some inspiration and excitement too. Four-hundred-something people flew to Earth orbit before Anousheh Ansari did so recently as a "space tourist" - but somehow her personality, her background, and her down-to-earth communication style appealed to many people around the world who never cared about space before. She wrote about washing her hair! She made it all seem real, something for regular people (even though she has more money than most "regular people" - that wasn't her point or especially important for most who followed her adventure). Probably many of her blog readers have gone back to their TV shows or whatever, but perhaps a few will now see space as something you can really do. There's a lot that needs to be made real again, even though much of it is is "basic" by Apollo and shuttle standards - but Apollo is in the history books, and the shuttle soon will be. The thing is, these "basic technology" things may be old at the core, but the details will be new, and they will lead to cheaper, more scalable, and more reliable systems than the old "money is no object, each vehicle is a custom work of art" government space systems. The vehicle system communications on SpaceX rockets are an ordinary local area network that any modern computer systems engineer would understand. This time rocket science won't be just for rocket scientists (really rocket engineering, that's the hard part). It will be integrated into the mainstream of modern technology and life. Well said, Anthony! Practical space technology has skipped a whole generation of engineers, so we do indeed need to train a bunch of people to start with the basics of space flight engineering, to get their hands dirty climbing the experience curve, hopefully in a way that will provide some inspiration and excitement too.

Four-hundred-something people flew to Earth orbit before Anousheh Ansari did so recently as a “space tourist” - but somehow her personality, her background, and her down-to-earth communication style appealed to many people around the world who never cared about space before. She wrote about washing her hair! She made it all seem real, something for regular people (even though she has more money than most “regular people” - that wasn’t her point or especially important for most who followed her adventure). Probably many of her blog readers have gone back to their TV shows or whatever, but perhaps a few will now see space as something you can really do. There’s a lot that needs to be made real again, even though much of it is is “basic” by Apollo and shuttle standards - but Apollo is in the history books, and the shuttle soon will be.

The thing is, these “basic technology” things may be old at the core, but the details will be new, and they will lead to cheaper, more scalable, and more reliable systems than the old “money is no object, each vehicle is a custom work of art” government space systems. The vehicle system communications on SpaceX rockets are an ordinary local area network that any modern computer systems engineer would understand.

This time rocket science won’t be just for rocket scientists (really rocket engineering, that’s the hard part). It will be integrated into the mainstream of modern technology and life.

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