Anthonares

In light of the news from Iran, I thought I would put together a guide to nuclear proliferation that will allow myself and my readers to understand this issue a bit more clearly than otherwise. Below are a number of questions that I think get to the heart of the issue: what is involved in nuclear proliferation diplomatically and technologically, and who are the players?

What about the Non-Proliferation Treaty?
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) was signed in 1968, and entered into force in 1970. As of 1998, it had 185 signatories, including Iran, Iraq, Libya, South Africa, and North Korea (which has since notified that it has withdrawn from the treaty). Notably absent are Israel, India, and Pakistan.

The NPT provides for the monitoring of nuclear facilities in signatory countries in an effort to prevent those without nuclear weapons from attaining them while still allowing the use of civilian nuclear technology. The IAEA inspects and monitors facilities worldwide and is the primary means of ensuring compliance of the signatory nations. There is no enforcement mechanism within the treaty, thus nations found to be in violation of the treaty terms are referred to the UN Security Council.

This is currently the situation that Iran is in; they are in violation of the terms of the treaty by breaking the IAEA seals on certain facilities and the US, UK, France, and Germany may soon send their case to the Security Council. There, all of the members of will decide what action to take against Iran, with each member having a single vote. There are five permanent members (US, UK, France, Russia, and China) who have veto authority. Tom Friedman in his column today stresses the importance of getting Russia, China, and India on board to halt Iran’s actions.

Who is the IAEA?
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was formed in 1957 to promote peaceful nuclear technology and prohibit military use. The IAEA is governed by a board of 35 elected each year by its 138 member states. Among its duties are the regular inspection and monitoring of civilian nuclear facilities. Inspections and investigations began in the 1990s, with violations by Iraq, Pakistan, Libya, India, Iran, and North Korea.

The IAEA played a large role in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq. Currently, it is involved in the effort to diplomatically resolve the issue of Uranium enrichment in Iran, and was part of an agreement to monitor North Korea’s nuclear facilities brokered by the Clinton Administration in 1994.

Why Can’t Just Anyone Make Nuclear Weapons?
By this question, I am not asking why we don’t allow just any nation to have nuclear weapons, but rather why is it not easy to do so? The physics of nuclear weapons are quite simple. Nuclear fuel such as uranium or plutonium are radioactive and decay to elements lower on the periodic table. Natural radioactive decay of uranium 235 or 238 releases an alpha particle, otherwise known as a helium nucleus (two protons and two neutrons), and transform to a single element lower on the table. But, isotopes of uranium 236 and 239 decay into two or more separate nuclei of elements lower down on the table and release a number of neutrons in the process.

Nuclear weapons rely on a chain reaction made possible by this neutron release. The chain reaction has two requirements: 1) ignitor neutron source, 2) dense enough concentration of nuclear material to allow for a runaway reaction. First, a neutron source is embedded within the fissionble material. Second, two masses of material that are not dense enough to support a runaway chain reaction (they are subcritical), are combined with enough force to make them dense enough to become supercritical. At this point, the neutron source inside releases neutrons that strike nuclei in the uranium or plutonium, these nuclei split and release 3 or more neutrons that then strike other nuclei, thus initiating a chain reaction that releases tremendous explosive energy. See the Wikipedia page on Nuclear Weapon design for more detailed information.

Given two lumps of highly enriched uranium, actually initiating a chain reaction is technologically not too difficult. Thankfully, however, Mother Nature has not provided us with ready sources of pure uranium for the obvious reason that pure sources tend to destroy themselves. This results in a “natural nuclear reactor” such as the one found in Oklo in Gabon, Africa. Typically, Uranium is gathered as an ore, O₃U₃. It must be then concentrated into a form pure enough for use, which can be done through a variety of methods including Thermal and Gaseous diffusion, Gas Centrifuges, Vortex Tube, Magnetic Separation, and a variety of Chemical and Plasma separation methods. All of these techniques require a) a very large facility to process significant amounts, or b) specific advanced machinery and equipment (i.e. the aluminum tubes we all heard so much about). This is fortunate, because it means that the tell-tale signs of uranium enrichment are visible by NSA satellite photo analysts. Where this is not true, careful monitoring of imports and exports are used to prevent proliferation.

One problem with monitoring is that enriched uranium is a useful fuel for civilian power plants of certain types. Efforts to ameliorate the threat of rogue nuclear powers such as North Korea have then centered around the transfer of technologies and reactors that rely on un-enriched uranium that can not be weaponized. Also, research reactors that can be used to enrich nuclear fuels are also useful in the development of radioactive neutron and alpha sources for medical purposes. These peaceful uses certainly complicate diplomacy efforts, and allow Iran to claim its program is one of peace and that the West is trying to hold Iran down in its development. But behind those words could certainly lie the intention of weaponization.

Who Has Them?
Below is a table of countries currently known (or suspected in the case of North Korea) of having nuclear weapons. I’ve included the year of first nuclear weapons test detonations along with min/max estimates of arsenal sizes (most current in year 2000-2003). These estimates are not intended to be perfectly accurate, they are intended to give a general idea of the “ranking” of nuclear nations.

Sources: Nuclear Weapon Archive, Federation of American Scientists, Wikipedia

Who Tried, Failed, and How?
The history of who has tried and failed to achieve nuclear status is a colorful one. Currently, the list of nations who have abandoned their nuclear weapons program either by choice or force is Iraq, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Japan, Libya, Romania, Algeria, and Syria .

Iraq’s nuclear program is still largely wrapped in secrecy, but the components of both gas centrifuges and magnetic separation devices were discovered in Iraq after the first Gulf War. The Israelis bombed Iraq’s nearly-completed Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981 in the belief that the facility would be used to produce highly enriched uranium and plutonium.

South Africa very likely possessed nuclear weapons for some duration during the 1980s, however it signed the NPT in 1991, and in compliance dismantled all weapons and weapons-related facilities. South Africa had developed extensive facilities and probably sold some of those capabilities to Brazil when it was developing its own nuclear program in the mid 1980s. A regime change and new constitution brought the program to a halt in 1988. Brazil claimed to have been pursuing their program largely in response to a gas-diffusion enrichment attempt by Argentina, suspended in 1990. Both countries now mutually monitor their facilities.

Japan had made some progress in constructing a nuclear weapon after beginning a research program in 1940. There are indications of information sharing with the Axis powers in this regard. However, no major progress had been made by the time Hiroshima and Nagasaki were decimated by US nuclear bombs in 1945. Japan still possesses the capability of enriching uranium, and could likely develop weapons in a short period of time if it desired.

Libya, Romania, Algeria, and Syria have all at some time either expressed a desire or maintained a secret program of weapons development. The fact that so many of the countries in this list of failed nuclear states are neighbors to those that do have weapons is part of the reason why nuclear weapons are such a danger. In order to maintain a strategic balance of power, nuclear programs are often pursued to match another enemy nation.

Who is Currently Trying?
According to their own reports, North Korea is trying and has successfully developed a limited number of nuclear warheads, though no testing has occurred. Regardless, North Korea possesses enough enriched material for several bombs.

Iran may also be developing a nuclear program, but they protest this notion. Iran does border two nuclear nations, India and Pakistan, however, and has expressed a desire to eliminate Israel. Their recent actions to step outside of IAEA authority and break seals on their enrichment facilities does suggest some nefarious purpose as well.

Who is Abdul Qadeer Khan?
An engineer and head of Pakistan’s nuclear weapon development program, AQ Khan has recently revealed that he sold or transfered nuclear weapons technologies to Libya, Iran, and North Korea. In the years leading up to 2001, the United States grew suspicious that Pakistan, through AQ Khan was selling nuclear technology to North Korea. Pressure on Pakistan after the invasion of Afghanistan led to Khan’s dismissal from his post, although he was retained by Pervez Musharraf as a special advisor. In August 2003, reports emerged that Khan had traded technologies with Iran in deals that may have extended as far back as 1989. Then, in 2004 Libya publicly announced details on its former nuclear program and fingered Khan as a key player in their development efforts. For these crimes, Khan was pardoned in 2004, and retains broad support in Pakistan where his efforts have brought some degree of military parity with India to the south. Nevertheless, you can be sure that we will here more about Khan if Iran continues its enrichment program.